I just sent this question in to "The Straight Dope"

I'm actually surprised that I couldn't find it in the archives. There was an answer about the census order that sent Joseph and Mary out on the road, which talks about the year he was born (and is a pretty cool read, for its historical and political trivia) and one about the calendar date for Christmas (Which is a much shorter, if witty, answer). But I couldn't find any questions about the shepherds, which kind of surprised me (since they're in more carols than you can raise a baton for, not to mention every Nativity scene).

So I went ahead and sent this off. As I was writing it, I realized I could probably Google for information on "sheep husbandry," but figured sending the question to "The Straight Dope" would get the answer out to a wider number of people:

When I was in college, I took a course on the history of Judaism and Christianity, and the teacher pointed out that Jesus was born at a time when shepherds were watching their flocks by night, and that the only time they'd be required to do that would be during the lambing season, when the ewes and newborn lambs would be most vulnerable to predators.

First: is this true? Were the sheep of that time and place hardy enough to fend for themselves, except during extraordinary circumstances?

And second: so when is the lambing season in that part of the world? Human political records are hard to keep track of (and subject to the biases of dueling historians) but sheep are sheep, and I imagine that the lambing season in Judea today is pretty much the same as 2000 years ago, even factoring in global warming.

Just wondering.

Thank you.

(I realize now it's probably too long [and snarky] to get answered, but oh well, I can't take it back now.)

Then again, according to that answer about the census, Luke retconned the whole "Born in Bethleham" thing in order to make Jesus's birth fit the prophecies about the Messiah. So it's very likely that that the shepherds were retconned in, too.

But still, being able to point out the lambing season, and that the angels specifically told the shepherds to "Leave your ewes and leave your lambs," is a reasonable way to point out to a True Believer that late December/early January is likely not Jesus's actual birthday, but just his observed one, without getting accused of being anti-religious.

(ETA: unless, of course, the lambing season in that part of the world actually is in late December/early January, in which case, I will shut up about it, and sing various versions of "Happy Birthday" with everyone else)

ETA 2: Okay, I'll shut up about it! I found a webpage all about the Awassi sheep -- the ancient, indiginous, breed native to Lebenon, Syria, and Isreal and apparently:

In Iraq, the principal lamb­ing season of Awassi ewes is in No­vember, and in Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic and Israel in Decem­ber-January.

(That's a nifty page, btw, with a lot of info and photos (just in case you want to get crafty and obsessively geeky, and make your Nativity scenes historically and biologically accurate)